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The Saratoga Futures blog will post futures related news, general market and investing items, and our support / resistance levels for the e-Mini S&P 500 futures. Click here to add the blog as an RSS%20chiclet.jpg RSS feed.  To view blog archives click here. To search the complete blog archives, please click here.

Note: Any comments that include past performance - Past performance is not indicative of  future results.

 

U.S. Economy: Job Cuts in June Deeper Than Forecast 

Employers in the U.S. cut more jobs than forecast in June and the unemployment rate rose to the highest in almost 26 years, offering scant evidence the Obama administration’s stimulus package is putting Americans back to work. more>>

Posted on Thursday, July 2, 2009 at 03:36PM by Registered CommenterSaratoga in | Comments Off

Commodity players seek reforms, market depth

Indian commodity futures traders are seeking permission for foreign funds and banks to invest in the market and more powers to the regulator to boost trade and protect investors, industry players said. more>>

Posted on Thursday, July 2, 2009 at 03:35PM by Registered CommenterSaratoga in | Comments Off

Green stocks flourish despite demand concerns

While green shoots of economic recovery are appearing only tentatively, green stocks are showing no such hesitation. more>>

Posted on Thursday, July 2, 2009 at 03:34PM by Registered CommenterSaratoga in | Comments Off

CME Revs Up for Surge in Carbon Credit Trading

As the Senate debates the American Clean Energy and Security Act recently passed in the House that attempts to create a cap-and-trade scheme for carbon emissions in the U.S. similar to Europe's, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has been ramping up its efforts to prepare for an expected surge in carbon credit trading. more>>

Posted on Thursday, July 2, 2009 at 03:32PM by Registered CommenterSaratoga in | Comments Off

Electronic vs. Pit Volume 7/1/09

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

ProductElectronic Volume
Pit Volume
Percent Electronic of Total Volume
Crude Oil 493,781
36,995
93%
Natural Gas 128,719
8,581
94%
Corn 276,267 43,896 86%
Soybeans 147,375
18,163
89%
Wheat 78,997
3,743
95%
Live Cattle 19,032
20,262
48%
Lean Hogs 17,794 13,015
58%
COMEX Gold 97,272 6,848
93%
COMEX Silver 22,392
1,873
92%
COMEX Copper 18,638
725 96%
Posted on Thursday, July 2, 2009 at 01:04PM by Registered CommenterSaratoga in | Comments Off

Futures vs. ETFs 7/1/09

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS


ProductFutureVolumeFactor*ETFVolumeFutures Liquidity Multiple
S&P 500 ES 1,534,550
500 SPY 173,041,088
4.4
NASDAQ 100 NQ 224,432
800 QQQQ 85,975,904
2.1
Russell 2000 TF 114,629 1000 IWM 46,383,036 2.5
Gold GC 97,272
1000 GLD 10,744,128 9.1

Silver

SI 22,392
10000 SLV 6,506,228 34.4
Crude Oil CL 493,781
1000 USO 16,223,552
30.4

* Factor - the number of ETF shares that are approximately equivalent in notional value to the notional value of one futures contract

Posted on Thursday, July 2, 2009 at 01:00PM by Registered CommenterSaratoga in | Comments Off

USA Spending.gov

Another fascinating take from the new CIO of the USA. Track all of the United States spending, access the raw data and analysis at usaspending.gov.  More>>

Posted on Thursday, July 2, 2009 at 10:24AM by Registered CommenterJay L in | Comments Off

Employment Report: 467K Jobs Lost, 9.5% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS: Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in June (-467,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Job losses were widespread across the major industry sectors, with large declines occurring in manufacturing, professional and business services, and construction.  More>>

Posted on Thursday, July 2, 2009 at 10:23AM by Registered CommenterJay L in | Comments Off

Unemployment and the S&P Composite Since 1948 

Doug Short: The monthly unemployment rate for June rose to 9.5% — up from 9.4% in May. The chart here shows the pattern of unemployment, recessions and both the nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) price of the S&P Composite since 1948.  More>>

Posted on Thursday, July 2, 2009 at 10:22AM by Registered CommenterJay L in | Comments Off

Freddie, Fannie to Provide 125% LTV Mortgages, Worse Than Extremes of Subprime Frenzy 

If you had any doubt that the intent of policy, such as the heroic efforts by the Fed to channel money to the mortgage market my manipulating spreads of mortgage paper so as to lower borrowing costs, was not merely to clear inventory but boost prices, today's action should put your mind at rest.  More>>

Posted on Thursday, July 2, 2009 at 10:08AM by Registered CommenterJay L in | Comments Off

e-mini NDX Levels

The September e-mini NDX (NQ) took a shot at 1497.75 early yesterday (1496.25 high) and then trended lower for final 5 1/2 hours of trading. The steady decline moved NQ below 1481.50 with 45 minutes left in the day and it closed 1478.75, with no test of the 1473.25 pivot (1474.25 low). That makes 4 NQ closes within the 1473.25 – 1497.75 range. Overnight trading had NQ below the 1473.25 pivot and post Employment numbers; it is about midway between 1461 and 1473.25. A close below the pivot would have us looking for 1456.50. A close below there and 1432 would be the next projection. If ES moves back inside the 1473.25 – 1497.75, them the holding pattern continues. Support @ 1461, 1444.50 (pivot), 1429, 1421, 1408.25 and 1392.50 (new). Resistance @ 1473.25 (pivot), 1481.50, 1497.75, 1510, 1519.50 and 1545.25.

Posted on Thursday, July 2, 2009 at 09:03AM by Registered CommenterJay L in | Comments Off

e-mini S&P Levels

The September e-mini S&P (ES) moved back above the 924 level early in yesterday’s equity session (928.25 high) and on a pullback tested the level for 2 1/2 hours before it finally moved below. The break below 924 initially took ES back to the 922, which was an area of congestion on Monday. The last move down into the close came within 1 tick of 917.50, then ES closed 919.25, slightly above the 50% retracement level of 918.6 but below 924 again. Looking at the bigger picture, we’ve been hearing more comments about a Head and Shoulders top forming on ES (Source: TradeStation). The key is to wait for a neckline break, which doesn’t occur until it closes below 890 or so. If you try to anticipate the break, you are asking for trouble. Overnight trading reached 912 prior to the release of today’s Employment numbers. The reaction to the numbers will tell us if this is still a bull market, regardless of the actual numbers. Post numbers, ES reached 909.25, but it is currently off that low. Support @ 907, 902, 892, 884, 869 and 858. Resistance @ 917.50, 924, 929.75, 937, 946, 957.25 and 963.

Posted on Thursday, July 2, 2009 at 08:34AM by Registered CommenterJay L in | Comments Off

CME Group Announces Increase in Minimum Tick Size for 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Futures

CME Group, the world's largest and most diverse derivatives exchange, today announced plans to increase the minimum trading increment for U.S. Treasury Bond futures to 1/32nd from the current setting of 1/2 of 1/32nd, effective August 30. The change will be applied to all expiration months. The minimum trading increments for futures intermonth and intercommodity spreads as well as options will be unchanged. This contract is listed with, and subject to, the rules and regulations of CBOT. more>>

Posted on Wednesday, July 1, 2009 at 02:08PM by Registered CommenterSaratoga in | Comments Off

CFTC Looking at All Options for Fair Markets

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission will use all of its regulatory power to ensure fair operations of futures markets for oil, agriculture, currencies and interest rates, the agency’s chairman said. more>>

Posted on Wednesday, July 1, 2009 at 01:59PM by Registered CommenterSaratoga in | Comments Off

US manufacturing shows signs of life

The contraction in US manufacturing slowed last month with several industries showing growth in a sign that the worst of the recession may be abating. more>>

Posted on Wednesday, July 1, 2009 at 01:58PM by Registered CommenterSaratoga in | Comments Off

Iraq's Oil-Field Auction Falls Short

Iraq's historic auction on June 30 of contracts to develop major oil fields has not gone according to plan. So far, only BP (BP) and Chinese partner CNPC have struck a deal on Rumaila, Iraq's most important field. Seven other oil and gas fields went begging as the world's biggest oil companies shied away from tough Iraqi terms and political and business risks. "This is very, very disappointing for the Iraqis," says Samuel Ciszuk, an analyst at IHS Global Insight (IHS) in London.  more>>

Posted on Wednesday, July 1, 2009 at 01:56PM by Registered CommenterSaratoga in | Comments Off

Electronic vs. Pit Volume 6/30/09

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

ProductElectronic Volume
Pit Volume
Percent Electronic of Total Volume
Crude Oil 504,774
32,155
94%
Natural Gas 134,394
8,289
94%
Corn 209,009 34,375 86%
Soybeans 151,225
19,587
89%
Wheat 106,712
6,226
94%
Live Cattle 24,164
32,522
43%
Lean Hogs 26,567 19,251
58%
COMEX Gold 103,427
6,370
94%
COMEX Silver 26,737
583
98%
COMEX Copper 23,166
1,502 94%
Posted on Wednesday, July 1, 2009 at 10:20AM by Registered CommenterSaratoga in | Comments Off

Futures vs. ETFs 6/30/09

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS


ProductFutureVolumeFactor*ETFVolumeFutures Liquidity Multiple
S&P 500 ES 2,062,874
500 SPY 228,888,192
4.5
NASDAQ 100 NQ 242,467
800 QQQQ 97,843,000
2.0
Russell 2000 TF 129,872
1000 IWM 44,576,640 2.9
Gold GC 103,427
1000 GLD 24,194,968 4.3

Silver

SI 26,737
10000 SLV 8,973,123
29.8
Crude Oil CL 504,774
1000 USO 13,465,046
37.5

* Factor - the number of ETF shares that are approximately equivalent in notional value to the notional value of one futures contract

Posted on Wednesday, July 1, 2009 at 10:16AM by Registered CommenterSaratoga in | Comments Off

Updated: Case-Shiller 100-Year Chart

Barry Ritholtz: Yesterday, we discussed why the Case Shiller Index, which fell 18%, was not yet cause for celebration.  More>>

Posted on Wednesday, July 1, 2009 at 09:24AM by Registered CommenterJay L in | Comments Off

S.F. Fed chief Yellen tells inflationistas to pipe down 

Edward Harrison: Of late, there have been a lot of worries about he potential for inflation in the U.S. Marc Faber is the most noted pundit in this regard. Over-the-top comments he made back in May about hyperinflation in the U.S. may have been a catalyst for all of the inflation talk. See my post Marc Faber: “I am 100% sure that the U.S. will go into hyperinflation” for more on Faber’s comments.  More>>

Posted on Wednesday, July 1, 2009 at 09:23AM by Registered CommenterJay L in | Comments Off
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