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The Saratoga Futures blog will post futures related news, general market and investing items, and our support / resistance levels for the e-Mini S&P 500 futures. Click here to add the blog as an
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Note: Any comments that include past performance - Past performance is not indicative of future results.
U.S. Economy: Job Cuts in June Deeper Than Forecast
Employers in the U.S. cut more jobs than forecast in June and the unemployment rate rose to the highest in almost 26 years, offering scant evidence the Obama administration’s stimulus package is putting Americans back to work. more>>
Commodity players seek reforms, market depth
Indian commodity futures traders are seeking permission for foreign funds and banks to invest in the market and more powers to the regulator to boost trade and protect investors, industry players said. more>>
Green stocks flourish despite demand concerns
While green shoots of economic recovery are appearing only tentatively, green stocks are showing no such hesitation. more>>
CME Revs Up for Surge in Carbon Credit Trading
As the Senate debates the American Clean Energy and Security Act recently passed in the House that attempts to create a cap-and-trade scheme for carbon emissions in the U.S. similar to Europe's, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has been ramping up its efforts to prepare for an expected surge in carbon credit trading. more>>
Electronic vs. Pit Volume 7/1/09
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
| Product | Electronic Volume | Pit Volume | Percent Electronic of Total Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil | 493,781 |
36,995 |
93% |
| Natural Gas | 128,719 |
8,581 |
94% |
| Corn | 276,267 | 43,896 | 86% |
| Soybeans | 147,375 |
18,163 |
89% |
| Wheat | 78,997 |
3,743 |
95% |
| Live Cattle | 19,032 |
20,262 |
48% |
| Lean Hogs | 17,794 | 13,015 |
58% |
| COMEX Gold | 97,272 | 6,848 |
93% |
| COMEX Silver | 22,392 |
1,873 |
92% |
| COMEX Copper | 18,638 |
725 | 96% |
Futures vs. ETFs 7/1/09
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
| Product | Future | Volume | Factor* | ETF | Volume | Futures Liquidity Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ES | 1,534,550 |
500 | SPY | 173,041,088 |
4.4 |
| NASDAQ 100 | NQ | 224,432 |
800 | QQQQ | 85,975,904 |
2.1 |
| Russell 2000 | TF | 114,629 | 1000 | IWM | 46,383,036 | 2.5 |
| Gold | GC | 97,272 |
1000 | GLD | 10,744,128 | 9.1 |
|
Silver |
SI | 22,392 |
10000 | SLV | 6,506,228 | 34.4 |
| Crude Oil | CL | 493,781 |
1000 | USO | 16,223,552 |
30.4 |
* Factor - the number of ETF shares that are approximately equivalent in notional value to the notional value of one futures contract
USA Spending.gov
Another fascinating take from the new CIO of the USA. Track all of the United States spending, access the raw data and analysis at usaspending.gov. More>>
Employment Report: 467K Jobs Lost, 9.5% Unemployment Rate
From the BLS: Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in June (-467,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Job losses were widespread across the major industry sectors, with large declines occurring in manufacturing, professional and business services, and construction. More>>
Unemployment and the S&P Composite Since 1948
Doug Short: The monthly unemployment rate for June rose to 9.5% — up from 9.4% in May. The chart here shows the pattern of unemployment, recessions and both the nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) price of the S&P Composite since 1948. More>>
Freddie, Fannie to Provide 125% LTV Mortgages, Worse Than Extremes of Subprime Frenzy
If you had any doubt that the intent of policy, such as the heroic efforts by the Fed to channel money to the mortgage market my manipulating spreads of mortgage paper so as to lower borrowing costs, was not merely to clear inventory but boost prices, today's action should put your mind at rest. More>>
e-mini NDX Levels
The September e-mini NDX (NQ) took a shot at 1497.75 early yesterday (1496.25 high) and then trended lower for final 5 1/2 hours of trading. The steady decline moved NQ below 1481.50 with 45 minutes left in the day and it closed 1478.75, with no test of the 1473.25 pivot (1474.25 low). That makes 4 NQ closes within the 1473.25 – 1497.75 range. Overnight trading had NQ below the 1473.25 pivot and post Employment numbers; it is about midway between 1461 and 1473.25. A close below the pivot would have us looking for 1456.50. A close below there and 1432 would be the next projection. If ES moves back inside the 1473.25 – 1497.75, them the holding pattern continues. Support @ 1461, 1444.50 (pivot), 1429, 1421, 1408.25 and 1392.50 (new). Resistance @ 1473.25 (pivot), 1481.50, 1497.75, 1510, 1519.50 and 1545.25.
e-mini S&P Levels
The September e-mini S&P (ES) moved back above the 924 level early in yesterday’s equity session (928.25 high) and on a pullback tested the level for 2 1/2 hours before it finally moved below. The break below 924 initially took ES back to the 922, which was an area of congestion on Monday. The last move down into the close came within 1 tick of 917.50, then ES closed 919.25, slightly above the 50% retracement level of 918.6 but below 924 again. Looking at the bigger picture, we’ve been hearing more comments about a Head and Shoulders top forming on ES (Source: TradeStation). The key is to wait for a neckline break, which doesn’t occur until it closes below 890 or so. If you try to anticipate the break, you are asking for trouble. Overnight trading reached 912 prior to the release of today’s Employment numbers. The reaction to the numbers will tell us if this is still a bull market, regardless of the actual numbers. Post numbers, ES reached 909.25, but it is currently off that low. Support @ 907, 902, 892, 884, 869 and 858. Resistance @ 917.50, 924, 929.75, 937, 946, 957.25 and 963.
CME Group Announces Increase in Minimum Tick Size for 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Futures
CME Group, the world's largest and most diverse derivatives exchange, today announced plans to increase the minimum trading increment for U.S. Treasury Bond futures to 1/32nd from the current setting of 1/2 of 1/32nd, effective August 30. The change will be applied to all expiration months. The minimum trading increments for futures intermonth and intercommodity spreads as well as options will be unchanged. This contract is listed with, and subject to, the rules and regulations of CBOT. more>>
CFTC Looking at All Options for Fair Markets
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission will use all of its regulatory power to ensure fair operations of futures markets for oil, agriculture, currencies and interest rates, the agency’s chairman said. more>>
US manufacturing shows signs of life
The contraction in US manufacturing slowed last month with several industries showing growth in a sign that the worst of the recession may be abating. more>>
Iraq's Oil-Field Auction Falls Short
Iraq's historic auction on June 30 of contracts to develop major oil fields has not gone according to plan. So far, only BP (BP) and Chinese partner CNPC have struck a deal on Rumaila, Iraq's most important field. Seven other oil and gas fields went begging as the world's biggest oil companies shied away from tough Iraqi terms and political and business risks. "This is very, very disappointing for the Iraqis," says Samuel Ciszuk, an analyst at IHS Global Insight (IHS) in London. more>>
Electronic vs. Pit Volume 6/30/09
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
| Product | Electronic Volume | Pit Volume | Percent Electronic of Total Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil | 504,774 |
32,155 |
94% |
| Natural Gas | 134,394 |
8,289 |
94% |
| Corn | 209,009 | 34,375 | 86% |
| Soybeans | 151,225 |
19,587 |
89% |
| Wheat | 106,712 |
6,226 |
94% |
| Live Cattle | 24,164 |
32,522 |
43% |
| Lean Hogs | 26,567 | 19,251 |
58% |
| COMEX Gold | 103,427 |
6,370 |
94% |
| COMEX Silver | 26,737 |
583 |
98% |
| COMEX Copper | 23,166 |
1,502 | 94% |
Futures vs. ETFs 6/30/09
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
| Product | Future | Volume | Factor* | ETF | Volume | Futures Liquidity Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ES | 2,062,874 |
500 | SPY | 228,888,192 |
4.5 |
| NASDAQ 100 | NQ | 242,467 |
800 | QQQQ | 97,843,000 |
2.0 |
| Russell 2000 | TF | 129,872 |
1000 | IWM | 44,576,640 | 2.9 |
| Gold | GC | 103,427 |
1000 | GLD | 24,194,968 | 4.3 |
|
Silver |
SI | 26,737 |
10000 | SLV | 8,973,123 |
29.8 |
| Crude Oil | CL | 504,774 |
1000 | USO | 13,465,046 |
37.5 |
* Factor - the number of ETF shares that are approximately equivalent in notional value to the notional value of one futures contract
Updated: Case-Shiller 100-Year Chart
Barry Ritholtz: Yesterday, we discussed why the Case Shiller Index, which fell 18%, was not yet cause for celebration. More>>
S.F. Fed chief Yellen tells inflationistas to pipe down
Edward Harrison: Of late, there have been a lot of worries about he potential for inflation in the U.S. Marc Faber is the most noted pundit in this regard. Over-the-top comments he made back in May about hyperinflation in the U.S. may have been a catalyst for all of the inflation talk. See my post Marc Faber: “I am 100% sure that the U.S. will go into hyperinflation” for more on Faber’s comments. More>>


