PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

* Factor - the number of ETF shares that are approximately equivalent in notional value to the notional value of one futures contract

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

The June e-mini NDX (NQ) continued its move higher yesterday and traded to another contract highest close (1941.75, +7.75), but not a highest high (1942.75 vs. 1943.75).  NQ has now advanced in 13 of the past 15 sessions.  For the first 90 minutes of yesterday’s equity session, NQ traded +/- 3 points around the 1935.50 level and then that range expanded to +/- 5 points over the 2 hours that followed.  For the final 3 hours, NQ did not test 1935.50 (1935.75 low) and it closed at the high.  There was no test of the trendline again yesterday (about 1927.5, 1928.1 today), but the close was more than 10 points above the line, so we now look for a move to the 1972.25 level.  Overnight trading has NQ at new contract highs (1946.75 high) ahead of today’s quadruple witching.  Support @ 1935.50, 1916.75, 1900.50, 1884.50 and 1872.  Resistance @ 1944, 1961.50, 1972.25 and 1997.25.

Chart Source: TradeStation

The June E-Mini S&P (ES) traded in a tight 67 bps range yesterday and closed 1161.25, up 0.25 and still below the 1161.75 level.  So since the 10.25 point decline on 2/23, ES has advanced in 15 of the 17 sessions with a total decline of 2 points on the 2 down days (-1.25 on 2/25, -0.75 on 3/15).  ES came close (1163.25 high, 1164 high on the day) to a test of the trendline early in yesterday’s equity session (1163.50, about 1164.3 today) and found resistance at the 1161.75 level for the first 2 hours,  The midday dip took ES down to 1156.25 before it reversed back up to test 1161.75 for the final 40 minutes.  Overnight trading has been within a 3 point range (26 bps) ahead of today’s quadruple witching.  We’ll continue to watch 1161.75 and the trendline.  A close above the trendline (by at least 50 bps) and 1181 looks likely.  Support @ 1151.75, 1145.50, 1133.50, 1121.50, 1114.50, 1108 and 1094.  Resistance @ 1161.75, 1171, 1181, 1196, 1208.50 and 1236.

Chart Source: TradeStation

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

* Factor - the number of ETF shares that are approximately equivalent in notional value to the notional value of one futures contract

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

* Factor - the number of ETF shares that are approximately equivalent in notional value to the notional value of one futures contract

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

* Factor - the number of ETF shares that are approximately equivalent in notional value to the notional value of one futures contract

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

The June e-mini NDX (NQ) continued its move higher yesterday and traded to another contract highest high (1943.75) and highest close (1934).  NQ has now advanced in 12 of the past 14 sessions.  NQ spent a lot of time in a sideways range again in yesterday’s equity session.  After a move up in the first 15 minutes, NQ traded between 1934 and 1940 for almost 4 hours.  It then moved up to the 1943.75 high, 1 tick below the 1944 level and then it slid as Paul Volcker made comments.  The decline made a new equity session low (1928.75, 1927.25 low on the day) before NQ bounced into the close.  There was no test if the trendline we looked at yesterday (about 1926.6, 1927.5 today) and the close was not more than 10 points above the line, so we can’t consider it a breakout.  Overnight trading has NQ slightly positive, with little reaction to this morning’s economic numbers.  Support @ 1916.75, 1900.50, 1884.50, 1872, 1854 and 1845.75.  Resistance @ 1935.50 (new), 1944, 1961.50, 1972.25 and 1997.25.

Chart Source: TradeStation

The June E-Mini S&P (ES) continued its move higher yesterday as it traded to another new contract highest high (1165.50) and highest close (1161, +6.25), but it found resistance at the trendline we looked at yesterday (about 1163, 1163.5 today) and the 1161.75 level.  That means since the 10.25 point decline on 2/23, ES has advanced in 14 of the 16 sessions with a total decline of 2 points on the 2 down days (-1.25 on 2/25, -0.75 on 3/15).  Yesterday’s equity session started at its low (1157.50, 1154 overnight low) and slowly drifted up to the 1161.75 level about 2 hours later.  It took another 2 hours for ES to break free of 1161.75 and then it moved up to the 1165.50 high.  ES consolidated the gain for about an hour and then it sold off over the final 2 hours as Paul Volcker made comments.  ES moved back below 1161.75 and tried to move back above twice and failed.  Overnight trading reached 1164, with ES near unchanged ahead of this morning’s economic data and there is little movement post data.  We’ll continue to watch 1161.75 and the trendline.  A close above the trendline and 1181 looks likely.  Support @ 1151.75, 1145.50, 1133.50, 1121.50, 1114.50, 1108 and 1094.  Resistance @ 1161.75, 1171, 1181, 1196, 1208.50 and 1236.

Chart Source: TradeStation

The June e-mini NDX (NQ) resumed its rally yesterday after Monday’s dip and traded to a new contract highest high (1932.25) and highest close (1928.50).  NQ has now advanced in 11 of the past 13 sessions.  Yesterday’s equity session consisted mainly of sideways trading with 1 spike higher 90 minutes in and 45 minutes of oscillation post FOMC.  The early congestion occurred between 1918 and 1922, while the late day action traded +/- 5 points around 1927.  Yesterday’s close moved above a trendline drawn from the January 4th close – about 1925.75 yesterday, 1926.50 today.  Notice that NQ essentially closed on the line last Friday.  Let’s see if NQ can break free of the line (a close more than 10 points above) or if it moves back below.  Overnight trading reached a new contract high of 1934.50, with NQ still positive here.  Support @ 1916.75 (new), 1900.50, 1884.50, 1872, 1854 and 1845.75.  Resistance @ 1944, 1961.50, 1972.25 and 1997.25.

Chart Source: TradeStation

The June E-Mini S&P (ES) did not test the old 1143 high (from January 11th) yesterday for the first time since last Tuesday and it traded to a new contract highest high (1155.75) and highest close (1154.75, +9).  ES reached its equity session low – the 1145.50 level – about 30 minutes in (1144.50 low on the day) and then it reversed back up to test the 1151.75 level about an hour later.  ES hung around 1151.75 for about 90 minutes and then it pulled back 3 points into the FOMC announcement.  Post FOMC, ES rallied to 1154, pulled back to 1148.50 and then rallied past 1151.75 again into the close.  ES is now up about 11.5% since the 2/5 low (1036.25).  How much higher will it go?  Taking a look at this trendline drawn from the 1/11 highest close, it sits at about 1163 today.  Also, the 1161.75 level is based on a Fibonacci extension of the range from 3/9 – 3/15.  We’ll start with those prices as an area to watch for now.  Overnight trading has been quiet again, with ES up a couple of points with not much movement post PPI.  Support @ 1151.75, 1145.50, 1133.50, 1121.50, 1114.50, 1108 and 1094.  Resistance @ 1161.75 (new), 1171 (new), 1181, 1196 (new), 1208.50 and 1236 (new).

Chart Source: TradeStation

BKX closed above our 48.3 threshold for a breakout above the top of the symmetrical triangle formation (chart, definition) on 3/5 (bar within the white circle - 48.61).  The upside projection remains about 58.  The prior posts on the index are here and here.  Chart Source: TradeStation

The June e-mini NDX (NQ) traded down to 1903.75 yesterday (-20.50), below Thursday’s (1906.25) and Friday’s (1913.75) lows and then bounced to close 1917, down 7.25.  NQ tried to rally over the first 30 minutes of yesterday’s equity session, but sellers took control and within the first 2 hours the 1903.75 low was hit.  Over the next 3+ hours, NQ traded within a 5 point range.  In the final hour, buyers returned and took NQ up to 1918.75 before it declined slightly into the close.  We see that NQ traded to a new contract high last Tuesday (was 1896) and that high has not been retested since.  We’ll keep an eye on 1896 and see what the reaction is to today’s FOMC announcement before we come up with more thoughts on further price action.  Overnight trading has been in a very narrow range with NQ positive here.  All the levels not marked new are adjusted for the June contract, which is trading at about a 2.25 point discount to March.  Support @ 1900.50, 1884.50, 1872 (new), 1854 (new) and 1845.75.  Resistance @ 1944 (new), 1961.50 (new), 1972.25 (new) and 1997.25 (new)

Chart Source: TradeStation

The June E-Mini S&P (ES) fought back from a 10 point decline yesterday and managed to close down 0.75 at 1145.75.  Yesterday’s equity session began in negative territory and ES tried to get back to green in the first 30 minutes, but only reached 1145.50, down 1 point.  From there, ES dropped to the 1136.50 low about 90 minutes later.  Over the next 3 hours, ES traded sideways with an upside tilt that peaked at 1140.75.  With about 2 hours left, ES moved back above 1140.75 and rallied to 1146.50 (unchanged) 20 minutes before the close.  Looking back at the trading we missed, ES traded to a new contract high (above the 1143 high from 1/11) last Wednesday and buyers have stepped off the accelerator since – an 18 point range (1134 – 1152) over the past 3 sessions.  We’ll absorb today’s trading and have more thoughts on what’s next tomorrow.  Overnight trading has been quiet, with ES in a 4.5 point range.  All the levels not marked new are adjusted for the June contract, which is trading at about a 4.75 point discount to March.  Support @ 1145.50, 1133.50 (new), 1121.50, 1114.50, 1108 (new), 1094 (new) and 1080.50.  Resistance @ 1151.75 (new), 1164 (new), 1181 (new) and 1208.50 (new).

Chart Source: TradeStation

 *** Liquidity switches from March (H) to the June (M) contract on the 11th ***

We’ll be on hiatus, so today is the last note until the 15th.

The March e-mini NDX (NQ) traded in a tight range of 84 bps yesterday, with no test of Tuesday’s high or low and it closed down 0.50 points at 1852.  Yesterday’s equity session started strong and NQ reached its 1861.25 high within the first 90 minutes.  Over the next half hour, NQ retested the high twice before it rolled over.  The decline paused near the morning low (1851.50) before NQ sold off again and tested the 1848 level (1845.75 low).  The rally off the low found resistance at 1853, the bottom of the 1853 to 1894 range from 12/24 to 1/20 mentioned yesterday.  We also noticed that 1856 has provided resistance over the past 2 days, it is a Fibonacci extension based on the trading between 2/5 and 2/25.  Overnight trading took NQ below yesterday’s low (1844.25), with it back in positive territory at the moment.  Support @ 1848, 1841.75, 1825, 1813.75, 1804, 1788.75 and 1774.50.  Resistance @ 1864, 1871.75, 1886.75 and 1902.75.

Chart Source: TradeStation

*** Liquidity switches from March (H) to the June (M) contract on the 11th ***

We’ll be on hiatus, so today is the last note until the 15th.

The March E-Mini S&P (ES) closed 1118.50 yesterday, up 1 point to extend its win streak to 4 days.  There was no test of the 50% Fibonacci retracement (1126.25 vs. 1125 high), but the 1119.25 level provided resistance.  At the start of yesterday’s equity session, 1119.25 provided support as ES was on its way to the 1125 high about 90 minutes later.  From the high, NQ trended lower and about 3 hours later it retested 1119.25.  The break of the level took ES to the 1115.50 equity session low (1115 low on the day) before it rallied back to test 1119.25 over the final hour.  Volume was up a little, but it remains very weak.  Following up on yesterday’s comment about how it’s difficult to be bullish here, we take a look at the S&P Depository Receipts (SPY) instead of ES because some candlestick formations don’t apply in 24 hour markets.  Notice the long upper shadows in SPY over the past 2 days – early rallies are being sold off into the close – not a bullish sign.  Overnight trading took ES below yesterday’s low down to 1114, with it back near unchanged ahead of Jobless Claims.  Post claims, ES is back testing the 1119.25 level.  Support @ 1119.25, 1108, 1103, 1096.25, 1084.50, 1069.50 and 1061.  Resistance @ 1126.25, 1131.75, 1148.25, 1153, 1168.25 and 1184.

Chart Source: TradeStation

In our original post from 2/22, BKX was approaching the top of a symmetrical triangle formation (definition).  It closed above the top of triangle that day, but not above our 48.3 threshold.  Since then, BKX has oscillated around the top of the triangle.  The threshold is now a close above 48.15 and a breakout still projects near 58.  Chart Source: TradeStation