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Note: Any comments that include past performance - Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Anti-Energy Speculation Bill Stirs Fear
Financial industry executives are mustering on Capitol Hill to head off a Congressional effort to rewrite the rules for the nation’s energy markets, saying it could unsettle already nervous markets and push more energy trading abroad, beyond the reach of domestic regulators. more>>
Investing in the material world
While both the US and UK indexes for stocks and shares enter a bear market, one index has risen by 30% since last year - the Dow Jones AIG Commodities Cash Index. more>>
The Blame Game
I want to say thanks for the July 10 email you sent to all your customers seeking to explain why today's air travel experience is so painful. more>>
Trading Platforms: They call it Software for a reason, it shouldn’t be this hard
The trading platform you choose should allow you to easily express your ideas. That choice becomes more crucial as the electronic futures markets continue to grow in volume, depth and breadth. In our capacity as electronic futures trading consultants, Saratoga Futures’ mission is to move beyond traditional brokerage by assisting you in selecting this crucial link to the markets. We take into account your trading strategy, style and market connectivity needs to narrow down the plethora of choices to a smaller group that more closely meets your needs. For further information, contact us by email or call.
Futures vs. ETFs 07/17/08
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
| Product | Future | Volume | Factor* | ETF | Volume | Futures Liquidity Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ES | 2,897,787 | 500 | SPY | 375,490,528 | 3.9 |
| NASDAQ 100 | NQ | 533,267 | 800 | QQQQ | 197,557,056 | 2.2 |
| Russell 2000 | ER2 | 285,287 | 1000 | IWM | 115,520,224 | 2.5 |
| Gold | GC | 236,335 | 1000 | GLD | 25,188,630 | 9.4 |
Silver | SI | 38,019 | 1000 | SLV | 1,296,377 | 29.3 |
| Crude Oil | CL | 684,338 | 1000 | USO | 22,212,162 | 30.8 |
Electronic vs. Pit Volume 07/17/08
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
| Product | Electronic Volume | Pit Volume | Percent Electronic of Total Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil | 684,338 | 71,250 | 90% |
| Natural Gas | 293,656 | 34,286 | 91% |
| Corn | 213,334 | 28,061 | 90% |
| Soybeans | 156,539 | 17,882 | 87% |
| Wheat | 74,000 | 5,004 | 92% |
| Live Cattle | 26,323 | 40,429 | 35% |
| Lean Hogs | 19,932 | 36,832 | 38% |
| COMEX Gold | 236,335 | 28,338 | 90% |
| COMEX Silver | 38,019 | 3,033 | 89% |
| COMEX Copper | 23,187 | 1,980 | 94% |
e-Mini S&P Levels
The September e-mini S&P (ES) did get above 1255.25 yesterday, but never managed to reach the anticipated 1268.75 level, finding resistance at the intermediate 1261 level. Overnight’s decline found support @ 1241.25 and ES is back above 1255.25. If ES were to get to 1268.75 today, getting much higher than 1276.25 seems unlikely. Dips holding 1248.50 would keep the 1268.75 and 1276.25 targets intact. If yesterday’s high of 1263 was the top, things point to 1190. Support @ 1255.25, 1248.50 (new), 1241.25, 1237, 1229, 1218.75, 1204, 1190 and 1180. Resistance @ 1261, 1268.75, 1276.25, 1286.25, 1291.75 (pivot) and 1298.
Climate Exchange trading soars, expands overseas
British carbon credit exchange operator Climate Exchange Plc said on Wednesday that trading volumes at its two main exchanges rose from a year ago, and it made progress with international expansion plans. more>>
The End of Oil's Boom?
Have oil prices seen their upper limit? That's the question traders and analysts are debating following a steep drop this week for crude oil. more>>
CBOE to launch commodity volatility indices
The Chicago Board Options Exchange plans to launch a family of volatility indices for commodities, after the introduction this week of a volatility index for oil prices. The move will replicate its widely-followed “Wall Street fear gauge” – the S&P 500 Vix index. more>>
Wheat: Crop down, prices a record
Colorado wheat farmers face a below-average crop this year, stunted by persistent drought. With the harvest well underway on the Eastern Plains, analysts are projecting statewide production of 56 million bushels — a 40 percent plunge from last year's 94 million. more>>
Government Stockpiles 26.32 Million Tons Of Wheat
China's state reserves authorities purchased 26.32 million tons of wheat from six provinces between May 20 and July 5 for government wheat stockpiles, according to statistics released by the Henan Grain Administration on July 15. more>>
America, Too Big to Fail . . . Probably
The taxpayers’ predicament over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is already grave enough. The Bush administration has asked Congress for a massive rescue package for the twin “government-sponsored” mortgage investors and insurers, and the Fed has announced that it will extend short-term lending to both Fannie and Freddie. Graver still, though, is the fact that the rest of the world of supposedly “high” finance is becoming more like Fannie and Freddie, with potentially disastrous consequences for the American economy and taxpayer. More>>
Global slowdown and rising inflation
The global economy is in a tough spot, caught between sharply slowing demand in many advanced economies and rising inflation everywhere, notably in emerging and developing economies. Global growth is expected to decelerate significantly in the second half of 2008, before recovering gradually in 2009. At the same time, rising energy and commodity prices have boosted inflationary pressure, particularly in emerging and developing economies. Against this background, the top priority for policymakers is to head off rising inflationary pressure, while keeping sight of risks to growth. In many emerging economies, tighter monetary policy and greater fiscal restraint are required, combined in some cases with more flexible exchange rate management. In the major advanced economies, the case for monetary tightening is less compelling, given that inflation expectations and labor costs are projected to remain well anchored while growth weakens noticeably, but inflationary pressures need to be monitored carefully. More>>
L-ish Economic Prospects
Home prices are in free fall. Unemployment is rising. Consumer confidence is plumbing depths not seen since 1980. When will it all end? More>>
Futures vs. ETFs 07/16/08
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
| Product | Future | Volume | Factor* | ETF | Volume | Futures Liquidity Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ES | 2,896,507 | 500 | SPY | 371,642,912 | 3.9 |
| NASDAQ 100 | NQ | 543,461 | 800 | QQQQ | 186,047,808 | 2.3 |
| Russell 2000 | ER2 | 283,193 | 1000 | IWM | 112,225,000 | 2.5 |
| Gold | GC | 181,614 | 1000 | GLD | 19,898,900 | 9.1 |
Silver | SI | 33,128 | 1000 | SLV | 898,800 | 36.9 |
| Crude Oil | CL | 546,003 | 1000 | USO | 21,073,700 | 25.9 |
Electronic vs. Pit Volume 07/16/08
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
| Product | Electronic Volume | Pit Volume | Percent Electronic of Total Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil | 546,003 | 60,327 | 90% |
| Natural Gas | 181,100 | 18,879 | 91% |
| Corn | 224,470 | 24,293 | 90% |
| Soybeans | 129,098 | 18,701 | 87% |
| Wheat | 67,616 | 5,959 | 92% |
| Live Cattle | 17,567 | 33,077 | 35% |
| Lean Hogs | 19,071 | 31,040 | 38% |
| COMEX Gold | 181,614 | 20,318 | 90% |
| COMEX Silver | 33,128 | 4,118 | 89% |
| COMEX Copper | 18,301 | 1,068 | 94% |
ICE cool about further regulation
e-Mini S&P Levels
It looks like the September e-mini S&P (ES) is being carried higher by the e-mini Nasdaq 100 (NQ). The NQ has developed a bottoming formation, while the ES has not. Let’s see if the ES can get above the 1255.25 resistance, as that should bring it to the 1268.75 level. Any pullback that holds 1237 should not disrupt the current oversold bounce. Support @ 1241.25, 1237, 1229, 1218.75, 1204, 1190 and 1180. Resistance @ 1255.25, 1261, 1268.75, 1276.25, 1286.25, 1291.75 (pivot) and 1298.


