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The Saratoga Futures blog will post futures related news, general market and investing items, and our support / resistance levels for the e-Mini S&P 500 futures. Click here to add the blog as an RSS%20chiclet.jpg RSS feed.  To view blog archives click here.

Note: Any comments that include past performance - Past performance is not indicative of  future results.

 

Anti-Energy Speculation Bill Stirs Fear

Financial industry executives are mustering on Capitol Hill to head off a Congressional effort to rewrite the rules for the nation’s energy markets, saying it could unsettle already nervous markets and push more energy trading abroad, beyond the reach of domestic regulators. more>>

Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 at 03:27PM by Registered CommenterBrett in | Comments Off

Investing in the material world

While both the US and UK indexes for stocks and shares enter a bear market, one index has risen by 30% since last year - the Dow Jones AIG Commodities Cash Index. more>>

Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 at 03:25PM by Registered CommenterBrett in | Comments Off

The Blame Game

I want to say thanks for the July 10 email you sent to all your customers seeking to explain why today's air travel experience is so painful. more>>

Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 at 03:22PM by Registered CommenterBrett in | Comments Off

Trading Platforms: They call it Software for a reason, it shouldn’t be this hard

The trading platform you choose should allow you to easily express your ideas.  That choice becomes more crucial as the electronic futures markets continue to grow in volume, depth and breadth.  In our capacity as electronic futures trading consultants, Saratoga Futures’ mission is to move beyond traditional brokerage by assisting you in selecting this crucial link to the markets.  We take into account your trading strategy, style and market connectivity needs to narrow down the plethora of choices to a smaller group that more closely meets your needs.  For further information, contact us by email or call.

Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 at 02:23PM by Registered CommenterJay in | Comments Off

Futures vs. ETFs 07/17/08

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS


ProductFutureVolumeFactor*ETFVolumeFutures Liquidity Multiple
S&P 500ES 2,897,787 500SPY 375,490,528 3.9
NASDAQ 100NQ 533,267 800 
QQQQ 
197,557,056 2.2
Russell 2000
ER2
285,287 1000IWM115,520,224 2.5
GoldGC236,335 1000 GLD25,188,630 9.4

Silver 

SI38,019 1000SLV1,296,377 29.3
Crude Oil
CL684,338 1000 USO22,212,162 30.8
* Factor - the number of ETF shares that are approximately equivalent in notional value to the notional value of one futures contract
Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 at 02:13PM by Registered CommenterBrett in | Comments Off

Electronic vs. Pit Volume 07/17/08

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS


ProductElectronic Volume
Pit Volume
Percent Electronic of Total Volume
Crude Oil684,338 71,250 90%
Natural Gas293,656 34,286 91%
Corn 213,334 28,061 90%
Soybeans 156,539 17,882 87%
Wheat74,000 5,004 92%
Live Cattle26,323 40,429 35%
Lean Hogs19,932 36,832 38%
COMEX Gold236,335 28,338 90%
COMEX Silver38,019 3,033 89%
COMEX Copper23,187 1,980 94%
Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 at 02:01PM by Registered CommenterBrett in | Comments Off

e-Mini S&P Levels

The September e-mini S&P (ES) did get above 1255.25 yesterday, but never managed to reach the anticipated 1268.75 level, finding resistance at the intermediate 1261 level. Overnight’s decline found support @ 1241.25 and ES is back above 1255.25. If ES were to get to 1268.75 today, getting much higher than 1276.25 seems unlikely. Dips holding 1248.50 would keep the 1268.75 and 1276.25 targets intact. If yesterday’s high of 1263 was the top, things point to 1190. Support @ 1255.25, 1248.50 (new), 1241.25, 1237, 1229, 1218.75, 1204, 1190 and 1180. Resistance @ 1261, 1268.75, 1276.25, 1286.25, 1291.75 (pivot) and 1298.

Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 at 09:02AM by Registered CommenterJay in | Comments Off

Climate Exchange trading soars, expands overseas

British carbon credit exchange operator Climate Exchange Plc said on Wednesday that trading volumes at its two main exchanges rose from a year ago, and it made progress with international expansion plans. more>>

Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 at 08:48AM by Registered CommenterBrett in | Comments Off

The End of Oil's Boom?

Have oil prices seen their upper limit? That's the question traders and analysts are debating following a steep drop this week for crude oil. more>>

Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 at 08:46AM by Registered CommenterBrett in | Comments Off

CBOE to launch commodity volatility indices

The Chicago Board Options Exchange plans to launch a family of volatility indices for commodities, after the introduction this week of a volatility index for oil prices. The move will replicate its widely-followed “Wall Street fear gauge” – the S&P 500 Vix index. more>>

Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 at 08:45AM by Registered CommenterBrett | Comments Off

Wheat: Crop down, prices a record

Colorado wheat farmers face a below-average crop this year, stunted by persistent drought. With the harvest well underway on the Eastern Plains, analysts are projecting statewide production of 56 million bushels — a 40 percent plunge from last year's 94 million. more>>

Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 at 08:44AM by Registered CommenterBrett in | Comments Off

Government Stockpiles 26.32 Million Tons Of Wheat

China's state reserves authorities purchased 26.32 million tons of wheat from six provinces between May 20 and July 5 for government wheat stockpiles, according to statistics released by the Henan Grain Administration on July 15. more>>

Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 at 08:43AM by Registered CommenterBrett in | Comments Off

America, Too Big to Fail . . . Probably

The taxpayers’ predicament over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is already grave enough. The Bush administration has asked Congress for a massive rescue package for the twin “government-sponsored” mortgage investors and insurers, and the Fed has announced that it will extend short-term lending to both Fannie and Freddie. Graver still, though, is the fact that the rest of the world of supposedly “high” finance is becoming more like Fannie and Freddie, with potentially disastrous consequences for the American economy and taxpayer.  More>>

Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 at 08:25AM by Registered CommenterJay in | Comments Off

Global slowdown and rising inflation

The global economy is in a tough spot, caught between sharply slowing demand in many advanced economies and rising inflation everywhere, notably in emerging and developing economies. Global growth is expected to decelerate significantly in the second half of 2008, before recovering gradually in 2009. At the same time, rising energy and commodity prices have boosted inflationary pressure, particularly in emerging and developing economies. Against this background, the top priority for policymakers is to head off rising inflationary pressure, while keeping sight of risks to growth. In many emerging economies, tighter monetary policy and greater fiscal restraint are required, combined in some cases with more flexible exchange rate management. In the major advanced economies, the case for monetary tightening is less compelling, given that inflation expectations and labor costs are projected to remain well anchored while growth weakens noticeably, but inflationary pressures need to be monitored carefully.  More>>

Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 at 08:23AM by Registered CommenterJay in | Comments Off

L-ish Economic Prospects

Home prices are in free fall. Unemployment is rising. Consumer confidence is plumbing depths not seen since 1980. When will it all end?  More>>

Posted on Friday, July 18, 2008 at 08:22AM by Registered CommenterJay in | Comments Off

Futures vs. ETFs 07/16/08

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS


ProductFutureVolumeFactor*ETFVolumeFutures Liquidity Multiple
S&P 500ES 2,896,507 500SPY 371,642,912 3.9
NASDAQ 100NQ 543,461 800 
QQQQ 
186,047,808 2.3
Russell 2000
ER2
283,193 1000IWM112,225,000 2.5
GoldGC181,614 1000 GLD19,898,900 9.1

Silver 

SI33,128 1000SLV898,800 36.9
Crude Oil
CL546,003 1000 USO21,073,700 25.9
* Factor - the number of ETF shares that are approximately equivalent in notional value to the notional value of one futures contract
Posted on Thursday, July 17, 2008 at 03:00PM by Registered CommenterBrett in | Comments Off

Electronic vs. Pit Volume 07/16/08

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS


ProductElectronic Volume
Pit Volume
Percent Electronic of Total Volume
Crude Oil546,003 60,327 90%
Natural Gas181,100 18,879 91%
Corn 224,470 24,293 90%
Soybeans 129,098 18,701 87%
Wheat67,616 5,959 92%
Live Cattle17,567 33,077 35%
Lean Hogs19,071 31,040 38%
COMEX Gold181,614 20,318 90%
COMEX Silver33,128 4,118 89%
COMEX Copper18,301 1,068 94%
Posted on Thursday, July 17, 2008 at 02:55PM by Registered CommenterBrett in | Comments Off

ICE cool about further regulation

ICE Futures chairman Bob Reid said today he was “relaxed” about the CFTC regulation of ICE Futures Europe. more>>
Posted on Thursday, July 17, 2008 at 09:52AM by Registered CommenterBrett in | Comments Off

e-Mini S&P Levels

 It looks like the September e-mini S&P (ES) is being carried higher by the e-mini Nasdaq  100 (NQ).  The NQ has developed a bottoming formation, while the ES has not.  Let’s see if the ES can get above the 1255.25 resistance, as that should bring it to the 1268.75 level.  Any pullback that holds 1237 should not disrupt the current oversold bounce.  Support @ 1241.25, 1237, 1229, 1218.75, 1204, 1190 and 1180.  Resistance @ 1255.25, 1261, 1268.75, 1276.25, 1286.25, 1291.75 (pivot) and 1298.

Posted on Thursday, July 17, 2008 at 09:48AM by Registered CommenterJay in | Comments Off

Weekly Trading Lesson: Discretionary Trading vs. System Trading/Part II

As one of the FX Power Course instructors, I get to talk to new and experienced traders on a daily basis. Many times these traders talk about trading systems they wrote themselves that worked for awhile and then mysteriously stopped working. They assumed that there was something wrong with their system, so they moved onto another approach. But the problem may not have been the system, but rather that the market environment had changed and the trader did not recognize it. more>>
Posted on Thursday, July 17, 2008 at 09:43AM by Registered CommenterBrett in | Comments Off
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