We missed a lot of action in the September e-mini S&P (ES) yesterday, as it got within 1.5 points of the 1307.50 level, then slid towards the lower trendline of the rising wedge we’re watching. This morning, ES moved below the line (1277.75) and a close below would signal an end to the month long uptrend. Support @ 1257.25 (new), 1248.50 (pivot), 1235.25, 1227.25 (new) and 1222. Resistance @ 1271.50 (new), 1277.75 (trendline), 1286.25, 1291.75 (pivot), 1298, 1307.50 and 1321.50.

The September e-mini S&P (ES) is back to the middle of the rising wedge we started watching Tuesday, after coming within 7 points of breaking below yesterday. Another move above 1307.50 could panic the shorts and get ES to 1321.50. Again, look at the Nasdaq 100 e-mini (NQ) as a bellwether. Until it exhibits weakness, ES will tag along to higher levels. Support @ 1291.75 (pivot), 1286.25, 1276.25, 1271.75 (trendline), 1256.75, 1248.50 (pivot) and 1235.25. Resistance @ 1298, 1307.50, 1321.50, 1332.75 and 1343.25.

The September e-mini S&P (ES) had a nice bounce late in the day yesterday, but was unable to close above the 1286.25 level.  Overnight, it was unable to test 1291.75.  ES is closing in on yesterday’s low of 1274.50 and the trendline that forms the lower end of the bear flag / rising wedge (1268.50).  A close below the trendline should bring the lower pivot of 1248.50 into play.  Support @ 1276.25, 1268.50 (trendline), 1256.75, 1248.50 (pivot), 1235.25 and 1222.  Resistance @ 1286.25, 1291.75 (pivot), 1298, 1307.50, 1321.50, 1332.75 and 1343.25.

The September e-mini S&P (ES) couldn’t stay above the 1291.75 pivot for long, closing 1 tick below yesterday and now below the 1286.25 level. We will start watching the lower end of the bear flag / rising wedge we mentioned yesterday as a breakdown level – currently 1265.50. On Monday, we mentioned MACD (momentum) to see if it could get above 0 for the first time since June 5. Yesterday’s close got it back above 0. Support @ 1276.25, 1270, 1265.50 (trendline, new), 1256.75, 1248.50 (pivot), 1235.25 and 1222. Resistance @ 1286.25, 1291.75 (pivot), 1298, 1307.50, 1321.50, 1332.75 and 1343.25.

The September e-mini S&P (ES) managed to break out yesterday above the 1291.75 pivot and is still above 1300. Even with that move, the current technical setup is far from bullish. One could argue it’s a bear flag, or a rising wedge (reversal pattern). See the chart below (Source: TradeStation). ES was unable to close above the 1307.50 level yesterday, lets see if it can stay above 1298 today. Since our comment on the 5th that the e-mini Nasdaq 100 (NQ) could be a directional bellwether, it is up over 6%, while the ES is up just over 3%. Support @ 1298, 1291.75 (pivot), 1286.25, 1276.25, 1270, 1256.75, 1248.50 (pivot), 1235.25 and 1222. Resistance @ 1307.50, 1321.50, 1332.75, 1343.25 (new) and 1350.

The September e-mini S&P (ES) closed 2 ticks above the 1291.75 pivot, but its difficult to call that a breakout.  Let’s see if ES can close above it today.  We are watching MACD (momentum - click here for a definition) to see if it can get above 0, which point to an uptrend.  A move above 0 would be the first time since June 5 that it’s been in positive territory.  Support @ 1291.75 (pivot), 1286.25, 1276.25, 1270, 1256.75, 1248.50 (pivot), 1235.25 and 1222.  Resistance @ 1298, 1307.50, 1321.50, 1332.75 and 1350 (new).

The September e-mini S&P (ES) is setting up for range expansion as is gets close to breaking one of the trendlines that form the current triangle formation.  However, this is not a textbook formation, so an expectation for direction is difficult to determine.  The trendline levels are the 1291.75 pivot and the 1256.75 level.  See the chart below (Source: TradeStation).  Support @ 1256.75, 1248.50 (pivot), 1235.25, 1222, 1209.75 and 1204.  Resistance @ 1270, 1276.25, 1286.25, 1291.75 (pivot), 1298, 1307.50 and 1321.50.

It doesn’t seem like we missed much yesterday in the September e-mini S&P (ES), as it traded in a 16 point range. It interesting that the high was our 1291.75 pivot. We are still confounded by the market action, and are now watching the uptrend that is developing over the past months with each pullback reversing at higher lows. Keep an eye on the 50 day average (1297.4) if ES manages to get above 1291.75. Support @ 1276.25, 1270, 1256.75, 1248.50 (pivot), 1235.25, 1222 and 1209.75. Resistance @ 1286.25, 1291.75 (pivot), 1298, 1307.50, 1321.50 and 1332.75 (new).

Overnight, the September e-mini S&P (ES) came within 1 tick of the trendline - connecting the lows from 7/15 (1200.75) and 7/29 (1231.50) - 1247 today. After closing just above the 1248.50 pivot yesterday, ES is now above the 1256.75 level, but we’re not sure how long it can stay above that. Recall that we were around the same levels yesterday morning. Watch the e-mini Nasdaq 100 (NQ), as is could be the directional bellwether. Support @ 1256.75, 1248.50 (pivot), 1235.25, 1222, 1209.75, 1204, 1190 and 1180. Resistance @ 1270, 1276.25, 1286.25, 1291.75 (pivot), 1298, 1307.50 and 1321.50.

Was last Wednesday an aberration in the action for the September e-mini S&P (ES)? As of Tuesday we were looking for a move below 1200 as long as 1276 was not violated. After Wednesday, we closed below 1276 on Thursday and only managed to rally to 1275 on Friday. Downside momentum should pick up on a break of the trendline we mentioned on Friday – connecting the lows from 7/15 (1200.75) and 7/29 (1231.50) - 1244 today. Support @ 1256.75, 1248.50 (pivot), 1235.25, 1222, 1209.75, 1204, 1190 and 1180. Resistance @ 1270, 1276.25, 1286.25, 1291.75 (pivot), 1298, 1307.50 and 1321.50.

The September e-mini S&P (ES) continues to have us thoroughly confused after 2 days of confounding action. It’s odd to see that there are no edits to the support and resistance levels from yesterday morning. Was an attempt to retest the 1291.75 pivot (1290 high yesterday) key to the upside exhaustion? The (lack of) employment numbers did nothing to help resolve the issue. If ES does manage to get above the 1291.75 pivot, it looks like the next target is 1321.50. We are now watching a trendline connecting the lows from 7/15 (1200.75) and 7/29 (1231.50) – 1241 today. Support @ 1270, 1256.75, 1248.50 (pivot), 1235.25, 1222, 1209.75, 1204 and 1190. Resistance @ 1276.25, 1286.25, 1291.75 (pivot), 1298, 1307.50 and 1321.50.

The September e-mini S&P (ES) has us thoroughly confused after yesterday’s action as it moved above 1276 and negated our view of the 1159.50 downside target. Overnight the mini almost reached the 1291.75 pivot, but has fallen back after this morning’s GDP announcement, back near the 1276.25 level. Did we see the bottom? Not according to the daily chart, as MACD (momentum) tells us to expect another lower close. When we examine the weekly chart, a bottom is not confirmed until we get a weekly close above 1340. Support @ 1270, 1256.75, 1248.50 (pivot), 1235.25, 1222, 1209.75, 1204 and 1190. Resistance @ 1276.25, 1286.25, 1291.75 (pivot), 1298, 1307.50 and 1321.50.

The September e-mini S&P (ES) had a strong day yesterday, moving past 2 of our resistance levels and it is currently approaching the 1270 level.  To reiterate yesterday’s point: “we look for a move below 1200 – 1159.50 looks like the eventual target.  Only a bounce back above 1276 would negate the downside scenario”.  If you draw a trendline connecting the highs from 6/6 (1414) and 7/23 (1291.25), the line sits around 1273 today.  Support @ 1256.75, 1248.50 (pivot), 1235.25, 1222, 1209.75, 1204 and 1190. Resistance @ 1270, 1276.25, 1286.25, 1291.75 (pivot), 1298, 1307.50 and 1321.50.

The September e-mini S&P (ES) fell below the 1248.50 pivot yesterday and now we look for a move below 1200 – things point to 1159.50 as the eventual target. Only a bounce back above 1276 would negate the downside scenario. Lots of new levels today. Support @ 1235.25 (new), 1222 (new), 1209.75 (new), 1204, 1190, 1180 and 1159.50 (new). Resistance @ 1248.50 (pivot), 1256.75 (new), 1270 (new), 1276.25, 1286.25, 1291.75 (pivot), 1298 and 1307.50 (new).

The September e-mini S&P (ES) pretty much traded within the 1248.50 and 1261 levels on Friday and has a smaller range so far today. Due to the small ranges, not much has changed in our thinking over the past 2 days - a move (lets say 1 or 2 handles) below 1248.50 and it looks like ES will eventually get below 1200, above 1276.25 and it will get above 1300. Support @ 1248.50 (pivot), 1241.25, 1237, 1229, 1218.75, 1204, 1190, 1180 and 1165. Resistance @ 1255.25, 1261, 1268.75, 1276.25, 1286.25, 1291.75 (pivot), 1298 and 1310.

The September e-mini S&P (ES) ended up testing 1261 yesterday as we had anticipated and didn’t stop there, getting as low as 1251. Overnight, it got down to 1249.25, staying above 1248.50, which we will now mark as a pivot. The thinking is as follows: a move (lets say 1 or 2 handles) below 1248.50 and it looks like ES will eventually get below 1200, a move above 1276.25 and it will get above 1300. Reiterating yesterday’s point: “At current level, ES needs to resolve the unsustainable current uptrend – either by consolidating or moving lower. A consolidation tells us there is more upside to come, while the outcome of a decline would be dictated by how low ES goes.” Support @ 1248.50 (pivot), 1241.25, 1237, 1229, 1218.75, 1204, 1190, 1180 and 1165. Resistance @ 1255.25, 1261, 1268.75, 1276.25, 1286.25, 1291.75 (pivot) and 1298.

The September e-mini S&P (ES) got within 2 ticks of the 1291.75 pivot yesterday before losing steam and closing below the 1286.25 level.  As we mentioned yesterday – “It would be surprising if ES doesn’t test 1261 today or tomorrow”.  First step on that path is to get back below 1276.25.  At current level, ES needs to resolve the unsustainable current uptrend – either by consolidating or moving lower.  A consolidation tells us there is more upside to come, while the outcome of a decline would be dictated by how low ES goes.  Support @ 1276.25, 1268.75, 1261, 1255.25, 1248.50, 1241.25, 1237 and 1229.  Resistance @ 1286.25, 1291.75 (pivot), 1298, 1310 and 1321.50.

The September e-mini S&P (ES) managed to move above the 1276.25 level yesterday, which we thought was a topping area, before closing slightly below. Overnight it got as high as 1284.50, below our next level of 1286.25.  If ES closes around current levels, it would be positive for the month and almost 7% above the 7/15 low.  We’ll maintain the stance that dips holding 1248.50 leave the current uptrend intact, but our ultimate targets are below 1200.  It would be surprising if ES doesn’t test 1261 today or tomorrow.  Support @ 1276.25, 1268.75, 1261, 1255.25, 1248.50, 1241.25, 1237 and 1229.  Resistance @ 1286.25, 1291.75 (pivot), 1298, 1310 and 1321.50.

The September e-mini S&P (ES) got 1 tick above 1268.75 yesterday and after getting below the 1261 level essentially traded between that and the 1255.25 level.  Things got more exciting in the overnight session after (lack of) earnings reports from Apple and Amex, and ES tested the 1248.50 level.   On Friday we thought a test of 1248.50 left the 1268.75 and 1276.25 targets intact – but ES already hit 1268.75.  If the move up from 1200 ended yesterday, look for 1194 and 1165 on a break of 1200.  A more technically sound bottoming formation would require a close below the 7/15 close of 1211.50.  Support @ 1248.50, 1241.25, 1237, 1229, 1218.75, 1204 and 1194 (new).  Resistance @ 1255.25, 1261, 1268.75, 1276.25, 1286.25, 1291.75 (pivot), 1298 and 1310.

The September e-mini S&P (ES) did get above 1255.25 yesterday, but never managed to reach the anticipated 1268.75 level, finding resistance at the intermediate 1261 level. Overnight’s decline found support @ 1241.25 and ES is back above 1255.25. If ES were to get to 1268.75 today, getting much higher than 1276.25 seems unlikely. Dips holding 1248.50 would keep the 1268.75 and 1276.25 targets intact. If yesterday’s high of 1263 was the top, things point to 1190. Support @ 1255.25, 1248.50 (new), 1241.25, 1237, 1229, 1218.75, 1204, 1190 and 1180. Resistance @ 1261, 1268.75, 1276.25, 1286.25, 1291.75 (pivot) and 1298.